Informative Speech

If ten percent of people are sick at the same time; if these sick people are unable to work and study; if this phenomenon continues for more than six months, what will happen? This is what happened when Covid happened, Factories shut down, the government failed to operate, international trade was restricted, prices rose, the currency devalued, and other problems arose. The global pandemic of Covid has hit the world economy hard and globalization is facing unprecedented challenges. The International Monetary Fund in World Economic Outlook 2020 forecasts a 9.61% decline in global trade in 2020, with trade restrictions and supply chain disruptions being important factors. The UN’s Financing for Sustainable Development 2021 report finds that the new coronary pneumonia epidemic may result in the loss of 114 million jobs worldwide. The economic downturn has led to a wave of job losses, reduced factory capacity, and a slowing economic cycle that has had a huge impact on the country's economy.

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Covid had a negative impact on employment, consumption, customs clearance time, investment, etc. In the short term, the GDP of major economies around the world showed different degrees of decline. As Emma Ashford explains in her article, “with largely uncontrolled viral spread inside the United States, consumers are increasingly shopping online, and are resisting patronizing in-person shops and restaurants.” Alternately, the vast majority of the country's economy, like the US., is dependent on national consumption and tourism. Through constant consumption, the economic circle can circulate. However, the emergence of Covid left consumers with emergency savings, falling incomes, and a wait-and-see attitude during the crisis, leading to a significant reduction in consumption and weak demand. This led to a reduction in population mobility, which cut down on national employment, consumption, and investment and caused the economy to decline in a short period of time.

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Covid also has an impact on international trade, especially when combined with global disruptions in navigation and extended quarantine times. This makes prolonged customs clearance and quarantine time of unfavorable trade conditions, more import inspection, resulting in total imports and exports is limited to a lower level. Aisha Bibi and his partners find out that “the COVID-19 pandemic has significantly impacted and slowed the supply chains, particularly for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). As a result, it has had an impact on overall economic growth.” These two-way shocks of undersupply of capacity and weak demand have led to a rebound in the economy now that the impact of Covid has waned. With the rebound in employment and consumer demand, the country's national income has grown and the demand for goods and services has increased - making domestically manufactured products more likely to meet domestic demand - which in turn has led to a decline in exports.

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Covid has exposed the vulnerability of global industrial chains, which will inevitably cause a new round of global value chain restructuring. As many developed countries are taking this opportunity to support the return of manufacturing, the global value chains dominated by multinational enterprises will accelerate to shrink or degenerate. Chris Giles and Martin Arnold summarize in their article, “the US monetary policy is taking a lot of the strain in seeking to guide the economy through a difficult time, around the world there is an increasing recognition that fiscal policy is likely to be better suited to restoring confidence in economic structures.” The impact of Covid on the country’s economy has just begun. This year, the U.S. government has tightened its monetary policy, unlike in previous years, bringing more investment back to the U.S. as a signal. At a time when economic globalization is still facing enormous uncertainty and policy guidance needs to be strengthened, the new fiscal policy will determine the future direction of development. These new national policies have led to different rates of economic recovery and new industries, and virtual economies, in different countries.

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